</noscript> <table width="1005" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td valign="top"> <table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=884 border=0> <tr> <td width=5 bgColor=#ffffff><IMG height=5 src="/img/corner01.gif" width=5></td> <td width=885 bgColor=#ffffff></td> </tr> </table> <table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=884 bgColor=#ffffff border=0> <tr> <td align=middle> <table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=880 border=0> <tr align=left> <td width=250><A href="/market/sbm/"><IMG height=35 alt=豆粕-中国饲料行业信息网 src="/img/logo_market_soybean-meal.gif" width=250 border=0></A></td> <td> <table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <tr> <td class=toplink><A href="/">首页</A> | <A href="/news/"><FONT color=#ff0000>新闻</FONT></A> | <A href="/market/">市场</A> | <A href="/livestock/">畜牧</A> | <A href="/tech/">科技</A> | <A href="/machine/">机械</A> | <A href="/tech/shuichan/">水产</A> | <A href="http://business.feedtrade.com.cn/" target=_blank>供求</A> | <A href="http://job.feedtrade.com.cn/" target=_blank><FONT color=#ff0000>饲料英才网</FONT></A> | <A href="/news/meeting/">会讯</A> | <A href="http://bbs.feedtrade.com.cn/" target=_blank>中国畜牧论坛</A> | <A href="http://365.feedtrade.com.cn/" target=_blank>饲料网址大全</A></td> </tr> <tr> <td bgColor=#999999 height=1></td> </tr> <tr> <td class=toplink><A href="/market/sbm/sobmeal_market/" target=_blank>行情</A> | <A href="/market/sbm/sobmeal_every/" target=_blank><FONT color=#ff0000>各地快讯</FONT></A> | <A href="/market/sbm/sobmeal_daily/" target=_blank>豆粕日报</A> | <A href="/market/sbm/soymeal_forecast/" target=_blank><FONT color=#ff0000>分析预测</FONT></A> | <A href="/market/sbm/soymeal_youqi/" target=_blank>油企动态</A> | <A href="/market/sbm/sobmeal_future/" target=_blank>豆粕期货</A> | <A href="/market/sbm/soymeal_policy/" target=_blank>政策</A> | <A href="/market/sbm/soymeal_stat/" target=_blank>海关、统计</A> | <A href="http://bbs.feedtrade.com.cn/index.asp?boardid=137" target=_blank><FONT color=#ff0000>豆粕论坛</FONT></A> | <A href="http://baojia.feedtrade.com.cn/quotation_S.asp?SearchingTxt=%B6%B9%C6%C9&SearchingCondition=sort"><FONT color=#ff0000>豆粕报价</FONT></A></td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> <table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=880 align=center border=0> <tr> <td class=w width=749 bgColor=#009664 height=5></td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> <table width="884" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"> <tr> <td align="center"><table width="880" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2"> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#D9EED5">您现在的位置： <a class='LinkPath' href='http://www.feedtrade.com.cn/'>中国饲料行业信息网</a> >> <a class='LinkPath' href='/market/Index.html'>市场</a> >> <a class='LinkPath' href='/market/sbm/Index.html'>豆粕</a> >> <a class='LinkPath' href='/market/sbm/sobmeal_market/Index.html'>豆粕资讯</a> >> 市场正文</td> </tr> </table> <table width="850" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td height="4"></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"><table width="880" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="585" align="center" valign="top" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" bgcolor="#999999"> <tr> <td align="center" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><table width="96%" border="0" align="center" cellpadding="０" cellspacing="０"> <tr> <td height="50" align="center"><h1>面临季节性消费旺季 豆油豆粕价格将重新定位</h1></td> </tr> <tr> <td height="24" align="center"><table width="88%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="1"> <tr> <td>文章来源：<font color="#000099">新浪网</font></td> <td>更新时间：<font color="#000099">2007-8-3 11:16:44</font></td> <td>点击数：<script language='javascript' src='/market/GetHits.asp?ArticleID=158322'></script></td> <td><img src="/img/talk.gif" width="15" height="13"></td> <td><a href="#comment">评论本文</a></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> </table> <table width="585" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td height="4"></td> </tr> <tr> <td height="70"><script language='javascript' src='/AD/200703/146.js'></script></td> </tr> <tr> <td height="4"></td> </tr> </table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" bgcolor="#999999"> <tr> <td align="center" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><table width="96%" border="0" align="center" cellpadding="０" cellspacing="０"> <tr> <td align="left" height="10"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" class="text"><div class="ReplyContent"><P> </P> <P align=center><IMG onmousewheel="return bbimg(this)" style="WIDTH: 435px; HEIGHT: 271px" height=250 src="/market/Uploadfiles/200708/20070803112150178.gif" width=407 onload=javascript:resizepic(this) border=0></P> <P><BR> 策略剖析<BR> 投机： 无。<BR> 套利： 豆油与豆粕套利，买进豆油同时卖出豆粕。<BR> 主要观点<BR> 豆油面临季节性消费旺季。<BR> 进口大豆将持续增长。<BR> 人民币汇率将抑制豆粕价格过快增长。<BR> 豆油豆粕价格面临重新定位。<BR> 豆油面临季节性消费旺季<BR> CBOT豆油期货与DCE豆油期货走势对比图<BR> <IMG onmousewheel="return bbimg(this)" style="WIDTH: 484px; HEIGHT: 258px" height=250 src="/market/Uploadfiles/200708/20070803112246472.jpg" width=450 onload=javascript:resizepic(this) border=0><BR>CBOT豆油期货与DCE豆油期货走势对比图。（来源：文华财经）<BR> <BR> 今年油菜籽产量减少，而需求呈刚性增长，加上国际油菜籽价格居高不下，国内新油菜籽上市后价格高开高走。食油方面，随着国际豆油、棕榈油以及其它农产品期货价格全面上扬，国际市场继续主导国内主要油脂价格走势，国内食油价格大幅上涨。据中国农业部监测信息，5月底，山东地区四级豆油集中出厂报价8400元/吨，黑龙江地区8500元/吨，比去年同期高65%左右。<BR> 而中秋和国庆两节将至，从国内豆油的消费周期来看，中秋国庆两节期间是每年仅次于春节的豆油消费旺季。<BR> 进口大豆将持续增长<BR> 由下图可以观察到，今年1至5月中国进口大豆同比大幅增加，在10月份之前，由于当年种植的新豆不可能大规模上市，因此，大豆进口的增长趋势有望持续到三季度。<BR> 由于肉蛋价格大幅上涨、养殖业效益提高，农户畜禽补栏积极，饲料需求增加，豆粕价格回升。截至5月23日，山东中等豆粕出厂价每吨2412元，环比升8.9%，同比高13.7%。豆粕价格的上涨，将刺激榨油企业增加大豆的开榨量并增加大豆进口。<FONT color=#ff0000></p><p align='center'><b><font color='red'>[1]</font> <a href='/market/sbm/sobmeal_market/200708/158322_2.html'>[2]</a> <a href='/market/sbm/sobmeal_market/200708/158322_3.html'>[3]</a> <a href='/market/sbm/sobmeal_market/200708/158322_2.html'>下一页</a> </b></p></div> <script language="javascript" type="text/javascript"> //<![CDATA[ var allow_keyword = '1'; 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