</noscript> <table width="1005" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td valign="top"> <table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=884 border=0> <tr> <td width=5 bgColor=#ffffff><IMG height=5 src="/img/corner01.gif" width=5></td> <td width=885 bgColor=#ffffff></td> </tr> </table> <table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=884 bgColor=#ffffff border=0> <tr> <td align=middle> <table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=880 border=0> <tr align=left> <td width=250><A href="/market/sbm/"><IMG height=35 alt=豆粕-中国饲料行业信息网 src="/img/logo_market_soybean-meal.gif" width=250 border=0></A></td> <td> <table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0> <tr> <td class=toplink><A href="/">首页</A> | <A href="/news/"><FONT color=#ff0000>新闻</FONT></A> | <A href="/market/">市场</A> | <A href="/livestock/">畜牧</A> | <A href="/tech/">科技</A> | <A href="/machine/">机械</A> | <A href="/tech/shuichan/">水产</A> | <A href="http://business.feedtrade.com.cn/" target=_blank>供求</A> | <A 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href="http://baojia.feedtrade.com.cn/quotation_S.asp?SearchingTxt=%B6%B9%C6%C9&SearchingCondition=sort"><FONT color=#ff0000>豆粕报价</FONT></A></td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> <table cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=880 align=center border=0> <tr> <td class=w width=749 bgColor=#009664 height=5></td> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> </table> <table width="884" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"> <tr> <td align="center"><table width="880" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="2"> <tr> <td align="left" bgcolor="#D9EED5">您现在的位置： <a class='LinkPath' href='http://www.feedtrade.com.cn/'>中国饲料行业信息网</a> >> <a class='LinkPath' href='/market/Index.html'>市场</a> >> <a class='LinkPath' href='/market/sbm/Index.html'>豆粕</a> >> <a class='LinkPath' href='/market/sbm/soymeal_forecast/Index.html'>分析预测</a> >> 市场正文</td> </tr> </table> <table width="850" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td height="4"></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="center"><table width="880" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td width="585" align="center" valign="top" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" bgcolor="#999999"> <tr> <td align="center" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><table width="96%" border="0" align="center" cellpadding="０" cellspacing="０"> <tr> <td height="50" align="center"><h1>CFT 2007年国内豆粕市场年终盘点</h1></td> </tr> <tr> <td height="24" align="center"><table width="88%" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="1"> <tr> <td>文章来源：<font color="#000099">本站原创</font></td> <td>更新时间：<font color="#000099">2008-1-7 16:23:23</font></td> <td>点击数：<script language='javascript' src='/market/GetHits.asp?ArticleID=177704'></script></td> <td><img src="/img/talk.gif" width="15" height="13"></td> <td><a href="#comment">评论本文</a></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> </table></td> </tr> </table> <table width="585" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"> <tr> <td height="4"></td> </tr> <tr> <td height="70"><script language='javascript' src='/AD/200703/146.js'></script></td> </tr> <tr> <td height="4"></td> </tr> </table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1" bgcolor="#999999"> <tr> <td align="center" bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><table width="96%" border="0" align="center" cellpadding="０" cellspacing="０"> <tr> <td align="left" height="10"></td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" class="text"><div class="ReplyContent"></FONT></P> <P> 根据《农场杂志》在11月底对大约750名农户进行的调查显示，明年美国春季的玉米播种面积预计为8800万英亩，比今年减少约500万英亩。在美国大豆预测大幅减产的情况下，南美大豆的播种面积、生长情况将是今年第四季度和明年上半年国际大豆行情变化的晴雨表。11月底~12月初南大豆播种工作结束，如果这段时间南美天气正常，大豆播种进展顺利，国际大豆期价可能回落，反之则会继续走高；12月~明年2月是南美大豆生长的关键时段，这期间若南美天气异常，大豆生长受影响，国际大豆期价将会不断刷新前期高点，反之则保持高位振荡运行态势。</P> <P> 2008年美国和我国大豆播种面积可能增加，国内大豆价格风险积聚</P> <P> 由于今年国内大豆价格涨势明显强于玉米，受比较效益影响，明年国内大豆种植面积有望增加，近而预期大豆产量增加，将对远期大豆市场价格大幅上涨产生一定抑制作用。2004年大豆价格，在国内众多油脂压榨企业由于效益奇好而大量订购进口大豆时，国际市场大豆统计数字突然由低变高，国际基金随即反手做空，大豆价格马上从4000多元/吨跌至2000多元/吨，国内油脂压榨企业损失惨重。有专业人士告诫，目前大豆价格的上行已脱离市场的实际供求，基本上是一种非理性的炒作行为处于高风险状态之际，同样豆粕市场风险也正在积聚。</P> <P> 2.大豆期价继续引领国内市场</P> <P> 美国农业部报告预计，2008年美国粮食以及饲料出口预计将达到创记录的275亿美元，比去年8月份的预测值上调了32亿美元。2008年农业出口的前景要比先前预期的更为强劲，主要因为全球需求坚挺供需趋紧，粮食以及油籽价格大幅上涨，美元汇率下跌。可以想象，在2008年国内外农产品特别是豆类供需格局偏紧的状况难有根本缓解的情况下，国内外农产品涨势即将被引爆。 </P> <P> 1974年的1290美分高点已经摆在面前。1974年全球因为短期的供应危机以及石油价格的暴涨催生了一轮大豆超级牛市，而本轮牛市的根基则要远远好于1974年。如果大豆价格超过了1974年的高点，且2008年豆类生产无法根本改变目前的供需紧张形势，则CBOT大豆不排出走出类似于 2005年铜市的暴涨行情。<FONT color=#ff0000></p><p align='center'><b><a href='/market/sbm/soymeal_forecast/200801/177704_9.html'>上一页</a> <a href='/market/sbm/soymeal_forecast/200801/177704.html'>[1]</a> <a href='/market/sbm/soymeal_forecast/200801/177704_2.html'>[2]</a> <a href='/market/sbm/soymeal_forecast/200801/177704_3.html'>[3]</a> <a href='/market/sbm/soymeal_forecast/200801/177704_4.html'>[4]</a> <a href='/market/sbm/soymeal_forecast/200801/177704_5.html'>[5]</a> <a href='/market/sbm/soymeal_forecast/200801/177704_6.html'>[6]</a> <a href='/market/sbm/soymeal_forecast/200801/177704_7.html'>[7]</a> <a 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