巴西2019/20年度大豆出口可能不会受到疫情影响，预售已达75%
2020年4月8日 大豆论坛
据外电4月7日消息，市场消息人士称，巴西2019-20作物年度（9月-次年8月）大豆出口将不会受到新冠肺炎疫情的影响，因该全球最大油籽供应国已经预售了75%的大豆，中国是最大买家。
收割步伐强劲，使得巴西农户能够快速销售他们的产品。
农业咨询机构AgRural周一称，截至4月2日，巴西大豆收割率已达到83%，而五年均值为82%，2019-2020作物年度预估收割面积为3,640万公顷。
巴西贸易部上周公布的报告显示，虽然巴西2月大豆出口量为逾500万吨，同比下滑2%，但3月出口1,160万吨，同比增长38%。
市场参与者称，尽管中美在1月15日签署了第一阶段贸易协议，但中国一直不停地在购买巴西大豆。
根据协议，中国承诺在两年内采购价值800亿美元的美国农产品，主要为大豆。
Asthepandemiccontinuestospread,Chinahasstartedtorampupitssoypurchases,sensingfutureuncertainties,marketsourcessaid.Therefore,ChinesecrushershaveturnedtheirfocustocheaperSouthAmericanbeans.
SkepticismhoversoverportoperationsintheAmericasamidpandemicfears,astruckingandportunionshavethreatenedtoshutoperationsduetoquarantinemeasuresandcontagionconcerns.
Whileportauthoritiessaytheyaremaintainingnormaloperations,thereisahighprobabilityofstrikesandshutdownsifthepandemicdeathtollmounts,sourcessaid.Thenovelcoronavirushasalreadyclaimedover75,000livesworldwide.
China'ssoybeanpurchasesfromBrazilhaveacceleratedtocoveranypandemic-relateduncertaintiesinthecomingmonths.Inthefirstthreemonthsof2020,world'slargestsoybeanimporterbought13.3millionmtofbeansfromBrazil,up10%yearonyear,accordingtotheBraziliantradedepartment.
Evenforthecomingmonths,Chinadoesnotseemtobetakinganypandemic-relatedsupply-siderisk.ForMayandJune,itssoyimportscoverageisestimatedtobeintherangeof90%-95%and85%-90%,respectively,marketsourcessaid.
Fallingcurrencyaboon
TheconsistentdepreciationoftheBrazilianrealagainsttheUSdollarhasmadeBraziliansoybeansattractiveininternationalmarkets.InBrazil,soybeansarepricedindollars,butpaidinBrazilianreal.Thedepreciationleadstohigherdomesticpricesforlocalfarmers,andhigherprofitmargins.
Therealhasdepreciatedabout30%sincethestartof2020anditiscurrentlytradingataboutReal5.23/$.
Withthefallinthevalueofthelocalcurrency,soybeanfarmersareearninghighprofitmargins,whichisfurtherboostingtheirsoysalesoverseas,includingtoChina,amarketsourcesaid.
AccordingtoaBraziliananalyst,thereal'sweaknessandarecordBraziliansoybeanoutputforecastfor2019-20havemadeBraziliansoybeansverycompetitiveagainstUSbeans.
WhileSOYBEXFOBSantoswasassessedMondayat$338.61/mtforMayloadings,theSOYBEXFOBNewOrleansassessmentwas$344.47/mt.
TheSouthAmericannationisexpectedtoproduce123millionmt-126millionmtofsoybeansin2019-20,anall-timehigh,andexport77millionmt-78millionmt,up3%yearonyear,accordingtodifferentmarketestimates.
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（作者：佚名）
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